We have discussed repeatedly the very narrow market, the parabolic move of some of the market, and don’t think we need to rehash it in detail. If you look at the Equal Weight S&P 500 it is up just 3.2%, while the S&P 500 is up 14.5%
Read BlogTechnology and related is over 40% of the S&P 500. Just three stocks are 21% of the index, NVDA, MSFT and AAPL. The top six stocks in the S&P 500 are all technology and are 31.6% of the S&P 500.
Read BlogThe market, as everyone knows, has been driven by fewer and fewer stocks to the point that the very high concentrated of technology and technology related is about 40% of the S&P 500.
Read BlogThe Fed releases their Dot Plots, and we expect to see some major shifts in their expectations from their March meeting. The shifts are negative.
Read BlogWhat has been frustrating the bears is the money supply, measured by M2 is down -5.4%, which has historically a reliable indicator for the stock market. A -5.4% decline in M2 is significant and generally should have had a major impact.
Read BlogAfter the NVDA report the stock continues to plow higher but the market is mixed. We think NVDA is having a blow off to the upside or a parabolic move.
Read BlogIn our opinion, this is the most difficult part of a market cycle, compounded by having a car full of Federal Reserve children screaming to the world “Are we there yet?
Read BlogThe market corrected about -6% and has bounced back to close to the old highs. It is now back to a more overbought condition than it was before, as the market’s momentum has slowed.
Read BlogWe believe the question is how long this market cycle will last, which depends on the economy and making the earnings expectations for this year and next.
Read BlogThe market found its footing in this mini-downturn around the 100-day moving average. We got less defensive in our tactical strategies, a distinction we are making, not more aggressive.
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