What has been frustrating the bears is the money supply, measured by M2 is down -5.4%, which has historically a reliable indicator for the stock market. A -5.4% decline in M2 is significant and generally should have had a major impact. But when you go back to the start of the Covid recession M2 is up a whopping 43.6% to the highest level in 2022 and currently up from the recession by 26.4%. Inflation is up about 20%, but on many items, you could argue about 40%.

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