Markets are off to a rough start in 2025, with continued pressure from tariffs, recession concerns, and overestimated earnings expectations. The Fed is likely to cut rates multiple times, and valuations may have more room to fall. Caution is warranted, but select opportunities remain in high-quality, lower-risk stocks.
Read BlogThe markets need some clarity on the economy, earnings for this quarter and next year, technology peaking, inflation, tariffs, the Fed, and geopolitics.
Read BlogWe increased our long exposure on March 12th due to a very oversold condition, the recent bottom actually occurred on March 13th and really bounced on the 14th!
Read BlogLast week the S&P 500 hit -10% decline from the high and then popped on Friday by about 2% on we believe an oversold condition and the news that there would be no government shutdown.
Read BlogLong-term problems that need to be fixed! Trump’s economic plan, “Brief economic pain is worth long-term gain.” This is going to be a year of change.
Read BlogIs this the Trump Recession? Huge drop in the first quarter GDP estimate from GDPNow last week from 2.3% to -1.5% to on Monday to -2.8%!!!!!
Read BlogWalmart reported last Thursday and guided revenues and earnings for 2025, sales for WMT were revised to 3%-4% from 5%. Sounds like a minor change but WMT is one of the best barometers for the economy and with inflation around 3% there is not much if any real growth.
Read BlogAs we mentioned last week we have become a little defensive and have added to some hedges to our portflios. The hedging is not necessarily designed to make money but is there to smooth out the ride.
Read BlogInflation is generally driven by money growth outstripping the economies’ capacity to produce additional goods and services, or supply shocks which tend to be self-correcting.
Read BlogThe two main issues we are concerned about as we have discussed repeatedly are the yield on the 10-Year Treasury, which currently is contained at around 4.5%.
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