Last week, we wrote that we were in a bear market. The market is off to its worst start ever, down 8% in the first two weeks. Not all the indices are down over 20% yet, but the average stock is off well over -20%. The Russell 2000 is down -22% and the Dow Jones…
Read BlogWe have known for a while how bad China was, it seems it is starting to be the consensus, (there is generally always another shoe to drop, Bear Stearns then Lehman). We believe China is in a recession, the consensus is, growth might be around 2%-3%, that is just not right. Our markets are down…
Read BlogPlease see the table below. We hope our readers and investors will find this helpful. Last year, the S&P 500 fininshed down -.7% before dividends. That really does not tell the story, as the S&P 500 equal weighted declined by -4.1%. If you look down that column of numbers you will see not much worked….
Read BlogLast Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by .25% and gave guidance of another 1% increase in 2016 as the year progresses. The market initially took it well, then thought about it and had a brutal fall on Thursday and Friday as the S&P 500 fell 4% in that two day period. It appears…
Read BlogThe big news recently has been the fear in the junk bond market. Below are the CCC credits, which are the lowest rated junk debt. Pretty amazing it has a 17.7% yield. It does reflect similar concerns that occurred in 2011 with the Greek crisis and the European recession potentially dragging the U.S. down as…
Read BlogThere is an article in the Wall Street Journal on Monday titled “The Stock Market Is Missing the Warning From Junk”, and we could not agree more. We have talked about the lower, but still investment grade bonds widening, consistent with past recessions/bear markets. Please click the link below to continue reading: Market in a…
Read BlogThis morning, the ISM Index was released and it was surprisingly weak. We are concerned it is confirming our concern that the economy may be contracting, given how weak the retailers have been. The ISM Index is a survey of the manufacturing sector. As a result, it is a good indicator of the economy. Please…
Read BlogIn this update we want to review how the strategy works, what the investor should expect, and how to best to use it in an overall allocation. The strategy is defensive in nature, focuses on the naturally defensive sectors of the market, protects from systemic risks with market hedges, has a compelling dividend yield, and…
Read BlogThe Federal Reserve minutes that was released on Wednesday of last week, sparked a rally in the market. We think the Fed is very likely to raise rates in December. In a less obvious way, the Fed has implied their target would be around 2% on the Fed Funds rate rather than the prior target…
Read BlogAs we expected, the market did come down to the support level of 2020 on the S&P 500 but then on Monday it bounced off of this level. You can see from the chart the resistance is roughly 2060 on the S&P 500. Please click the link below to continue reading: Market in a Minute…
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