PVG Market In A Minute-February 4, 2025
The two main issues we are concerned about as we have discussed repeatedly are the yield on the 10-Year Treasury, which currently is contained at around 4.5%.
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The two main issues we are concerned about as we have discussed repeatedly are the yield on the 10-Year Treasury, which currently is contained at around 4.5%.
Read BlogThe big news this week is a company in China called DeepSeek, as their A.I. model is apparently much better, cheaper, and requires less energy. It also has an open architecture (not proprietary—cheap!).
Read BlogClearly, investor emotion is a real thing that impacts the stock market and maybe even more importantly right now, the bond market.
Read BlogInflation/bond yields and earnings reports are the near-term focus of the market! Since September, the S&P rose by about 10% while bonds (7-10 Treasuries) fell by about 9%.
Read BlogFirst, reviewing 2024, the economy was driven significantly by fiscal spending. Monetary policy was restrictive on the surface with an inverted yield curve for part of the year and then later a flattish yield curve with a little higher yield on the longer dated Treasuries than the short-term.
Read BlogThe Federal Reserve did what we expected, they cut rates by .25%, and the S&P 500 fell by close to -3%. In last week’s update, we mentioned this would be analogous to a company guiding down earnings and the stock declining.
Read BlogSince 1950, there have been eight times that the S&P 500 gained 20% or more two years in a row, and in six years the third year saw positive gains with an average return of 12%.
Read BlogThe November CPI reported on Wednesday and is expected to be up 0.3% versus October, this is month over month (3.6% annualized). The October report on a year over year basis was up 2.6%
Read BlogThe big news the market will focus on this week is the Employment Report on Friday with an estimated 200,000 new jobs and the Unemployment Rate ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Read BlogWe feel strongly that a massive rotation or broadening of the markets is in process. We have been expecting a big rotation down into midcap and in particular small cap stocks.
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