The Federal Reserve meets this week and plans a press conference on Wednesday. Other than this week, the Fed will meet in July, September, October and December. It is widely expected the Fed will raise rates in September. Generally, when the Fed raises rates it is not once or twice but numerous times. Our best guess is if the consensus actually discounted numerous increases in interest rates the stock market would be considerably lower and interest rates would be considerably higher. Our view is the Fed will likely increase rates in September and then again in October, and perhaps several times next year. We would expect a 10%-15% decline in the stock market as this becomes consensus, as long as the global economy can handle it.

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Market in a Minute 2015-6-15