We think it is clear there is no quick fix to inflation due to the continued very high level of government spending and a prolonged energy shock due to the Ukraine war and bad energy policy in the U.S. and Europe.

The obvious impact of the current Fed policy (Don’t fight the Fed!), money supply falls, the dollar goes up, the economy turns negative, and the stock market drops. So far all have happened!

The question is where are we in this bear cycle? It is clear we have a way to go.