I got negative in July, I did not do so because of the seasonality in front of the market in August and September it was the fundamentals were negative and the technicals also turned negative.

The S&P 500 fell -4.9% in September and was down -7% from the high in July. The market was consistent with our expectation that it would fall -5% to -10%.

Based on seasonality, the market should continue down some into October, and then bounce about the middle of October.

If the 10-Year materially drops below 4.5% and earnings are better than expected, we believe the historical trading patterns of up 4.5% in the 4th quarter will prove to be conservative.

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