We have updated our 2014 Market Outlook. It contains both fundamental and technical analysis of the financial markets, and what observations we are making as we head into the fourth quarter of 2014. In summary, we still see an over valuation in the equity and fixed income markets. For this, and many other reasons, we…
Thinking back as a youngster I disliked that feeling of fall approaching, when the days were still very warm, but the nights cooler. That chill in the air was a reminder that school was fast approaching and the good times during the summer season were coming to an end. Fast forward to today and the…
What is an advisor to do with all major asset classes in an overvalued condition? We believe the use of tactical management or portfolios that protect against the downside are very timely. Generally, P/E multiples (price to earnings) are a good measure of risk for stocks, and we think it works particularly well for stock…
We have two tranches of our portfolio, the growth and income tranche and the income tranche. Together the two generate around a 4.5% dividend yield on the portfolio. We would like to focus on the income tranche of the portfolio in this update. We currently have about 33% in the growth and income tranche and…
The stock market is now into the sixth year of a cyclical bull market that started March of 2009, rarely do bull markets last more than five years. Additionally, one of the main catalysts for the market has been the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, which if all goes as plan will end in 2014. Our…
When interest rates, rise bond prices fall. From May 2013 through December 2013 interest rates rose from 1.6% to about 3.0% on the 10 year Treasury. During this period bond prices fell around 20%. The U.S. Economy is growing around 2%, generally speaking, and inflation appears to be normalizing around 2%, getting us nominal GDP…
We are up in a down market (PVG Tactical Total Return +0.59%; S&P 500 -0.24%*), as the market fell in January and the first part of February we protected the portfolio with inverse ETFs and then took the hedges off and allowed the portfolio to rally when the market bounced. We have recently started to…
We have discussed how to use our Loss Averse Equity Income in an asset allocation in the past. We thought we would do it again as we are still getting questions as to why we did not perform like the equity markets in 2013, and how to best use the strategy in a portfolio. We…